基于CGE模型的2020年中国碳排放强度目标分析  

Analysis of the Scenarios of China’s Carbon Intensity Reduction in 2020 Based on the CGE Model

作　　者：刘小敏[1] 付加锋[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第4期634-639,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：国家环保公益性行业科研专项(编号:200809151)

摘　　要：针对我国提出的2020年单位GDP的CO_2排放强度下降目标,构建了能源SAM表和CGE模型,运用情景分析方法,利用CGE模型的宏观平衡与政策分析能力,估算2020年我国碳排放强度目标执行难易程度。模拟结果显示:①产业结构调整对节能贡献有限,主要节能量来源于产业能源强度下降,高能耗行业仍是今后调控的主要对象;②完成2020年碳排放强度目标有一定把握,但仍需要加强节能减排政策的延续性和出台新的保障措施。对此,提出两点建议:一是要通过技术进步,严格调控高耗能行业,提高其能源利用效率;二是要兼顾行业减排潜力差异,充分发挥产业结构升级所带来的减排贡献,从长期来看,最根本的要依赖技术进步与创新。In the 21st century, mankind will face a big challenge, i.e., global climate change. Many countries have achieved agreement on this issue. In November in 2009, China announced a new carbon intensity reduction target in 2020 year to manifest the commitment of the Chinese government to dealing with climate change. The study was to unravel the key issues associated with whether China can meet the challenge and how to achieve the goal. First, we formulated a variety of scenarios to accomplish the goal of 2020’s carbon intensity based on the experience of achieving the national energy intensity targets in the Eleventh Five National plan during the last five years. Combined with the country’s other development strategies, such as the future energy structure, the ratio of various energy goals, and considering the existing major emission reduction planning for the next decade, we used the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model to develop and analyze the scenarios. To construct the SAM which is the data base of the CGE model, we replaced the value by physical data in energy sectors. This treatment could make it more realistic and manageable in energy consumption calculations. An energy CGE model with five specific energy sectors was built subsequently. Some parameters of the scenarios were summarized from the existing studies and others were specified on the assumption that policies of energy saving and emissions reduction in the Eleventh Five-Year nation’s plan will remain almost invariant in the next decade. We estimated the difficulty of achieving the carbon intensity targets in 2020 by comparing the national targets of the last five years with the targets of the year 2020, figuring out possible paths to achieve the goal of year 2020. Results show that： 1） Industrial restructuring showed limited contribution to energy saving over the last five years, and the largest part of energy saving came from decreases in energy intensity of major industrial sectors. Sectors with high energy consumption are still

关 键 词：碳排放强度 能源强度 CGE模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F206[经济管理—国民经济]