选择价值在农地城市流转决策中的应用——以武汉市为例  

Option Value Applications in Decision-Making Models for Rural-Urban Land Conversion in Wuhan City

作　　者：崔新蕾[1] 张安录[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学土地管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第4期675-683,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:"农地城市流转中不同利益集团福利变化测度与福利均衡研究"(编号:70773047);体功能区空间规划管制下群体福利均衡与农田生态补偿研究"(编号:40901288);国家社会科学基金项目":土地使用权征用制度安排与农民损失及补偿政策研究"(编号:08BZZ026);"主体功能区划框架下农田生态补偿制度及效应研究"(编号:09CJY021);教育部博士点基金项目":农地城市流转的选择价值和外部性研究"(编号:20070504020)

摘　　要：农地城市流转是城市化、工业化过程中的普遍现象,是土地资源竞争配置的结果,并具有不确定性、不可逆性和流转时间延迟性三个特征,因此农地具有选择价值。本文以武汉市为研究对象,采用模型假设法和实证分析法,对农地城市流转的选择价值进行估算,并建立农地城市流转的决策模型。研究结果表明:①将农地选择价值考虑进农地城市流转决策模型中,农地是否流转将取决于农地使用价值、开发成本及相关费用和选择价值之和与农地流转为市地的潜在预期价值的差值;②在同一时期,农地流转为城市不同用途地类的选择价值不同,在流转期内,住宅用地的选择价值>商业用地的选择价值>工业用地的选择价值;农地流转为城市某一类型用地时,随着流转时间延迟,选择价值的额度逐渐增加;③基于选择价值理论下的农地流转决策时间,较成本-效益理论下的农地流转决策时间相比,农地流转为城市商业用地的流转时间延后了5年,住宅和工业用地的流转时间分别延迟了6年和9年。科学评估农地资源的选择价值,将其纳入流转成本核算体系中,能够弥补市场机制作用不足给农地城市流转决策带来的影响,起到减缓城市边缘区农地流转的速度。Rural-urban land conversion has become a common phenomenon in the process of urbanization. Phenomena of rural-urban land conversion is as a result of competing allocation between farming lands and city lands. To some extent, its essence is how to allocate limiting farming lands to increasing land demands in cities. Rural-urban land conversion has characteristics of irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment time flexibility. Agricultural land has option value. The study was to estimate the option value of rural-urban conversion in Wuhan, and to establish a rural-urban land conversion decision-making model. Methods of model assumptions and case study were employed. Results indicate that considering the option value of rural lands in rural-urban land conversion decision-making models, whether the rural lands are converted depends on the sum of rural land use value, conversion costs, related taxes and option value, and value differences between the option value and the expected value of urban land converted from rural lands. If the result is greater than zero, we can make a decision on land conversion from rural to urban areas. If the result is smaller than zero, we can make a decision on rural land protection. During the same period, land conversion from rural to different urban areas has different option values. If t=0, the option values of rural land conversion to commercial, residential, and industrial uses are 91.67, 95.01, and 86.89 Yuan per square meter, respectively. During the whole period, the option value of commercial use is greater than the option value of residential use, which is greater than the option value of industrial use. It is showed that the land having option value will be enhanced if the decision maker delays decision-making processes. From the angle of sustainable utilization, this study analyzes and evaluates the option value of rural-urban land conversion, which appears to be able to optimize decision-making in rural-urban land conversion. It is found that conversions of rural land to c

关 键 词：农地城市流转 选择价值 决策 武汉市 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]