龙羊峡水库入库径流变化特征及趋势预测  

The Trend Prediction and Characteristics of the Variation of the Runoff into the Longyangxia Reservoir

作　　者：蓝永超[1] 康尔泗[1] 马全杰[2] 杨文华[3] 姚志宗[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]水利部黄河水利委员会上游水文水资源局,甘肃兰州730000 [3]黄河上中游水量调度委员会办公室,甘肃兰州730030

出　　处：《冰川冻土》1999年第3期281-285,共5页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家 "九五"重点科技攻关项目

摘　　要：根据龙羊峡水库入库径流代表站——唐乃亥水文站年及汛期径流量观测资料， 分析了入库径流的变化特征， 并利用灰色系统中的残差序列周期修正 Ｇ Ｍ （１， １） 模型， 对其近期及未来的变化趋势进行了预测The Longyangxia Gorge Key Water Control System, one of the greatest hydropower stations in China, is located on the boundary of Gonghe and Guinan Counties of the Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province, 1 680 km down from the headwaters of the Yellow River The Longyangxia Reservoir holds 247×10 8 m 3 of water Besides its chief function in power generating, the system also works as flood and ice run resistance, irrigation and aquatic production Tangnag Hydrological Station, 110 km upstream, is the representative station for runoff into the Longyangxia Reservoir Runoff at the Tangnag Station accounts for 95% of the inflow to the reservoir As a result, the variation in runoff in the upper Yellow River above Tangnag has a notable impact on utilization of the water resources in the entire Yellow River Watershed However, recently runoff above Tangnag decreases owing to a continuous drought in the watersheds, not only greatly influencing the economy and people's standards of living in the upper reaches, but also curbing the economic development within the Yellow River Watershed To solve these problems, accurately predicting the variation of runoff at the Tangnag Station is indispensable However, satisfied methods are not available at present to determine the variability of water flow, owing to complexity of its intrinsic evolutions, and its close and complicated relationships to climate change In addition, the precision of a runoff prediction is greatly influenced by the long term weather forecasting Therefore, it is essential to analyze the evolution of runoff, and its relationships with climatic factors Hydro meteorological data have been collected at the Tangnag Station since 1956 Based on hydro meteorological data at the Tangnag Station, the variation characteristics of the runoff into the reservoir were analyzed, and a long range forecast model, called period correcting for residual errror series GM(1, 1) model, is applied to predict the recent and long term trends of th

关 键 词：变化特征 趋势预测 灰色系统 水库 入库径流 

分 类 号：P332.3[天文地球—水文科学] TV697.21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]