优化能源结构对实现中国碳强度目标的贡献潜力评估  

Contribution of Improving Energy Mix to Carbon Intensity Target in China:Potential Assessment

作　　者：王锋[1] 冯根福[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2011年第4期127-137,共11页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金面上项目"实现中国碳强度目标的政策选择及其贡献潜力研究"(批准号20100481348)

摘　　要：如何实现中国的碳强度目标已成为学术界关注的重大课题。本文首先运用协整技术和马尔可夫链模型预测了2011—2020年中国的碳强度趋势,然后分9个组合情景评估了优化能源结构对实现碳强度目标的贡献潜力。主要结论表明:在经济高速增长情景中,如果"大幅调整"能源结构,那么在2020年可使碳强度相对2005年下降19%,该情景中的能源结构优化对实现碳强度目标的贡献潜力最大,将达到42.3%—47.6%;即使保守估计,在经济低速增长情景中,若仅实现了国家中长期能源发展规划对能源结构的调整目标,那么碳强度将下降15.6%,优化能源结构的贡献潜力也会达到34.6%—38.9%。How to achieve China＇s carbon intensity target has became an important issue in academic circle. This paper firstly uses cintegration techonology and Markov chain model to predict the trend of China＇s carbon intensity during the period 2011 to 2020, and then assesses the contribution of improving energy mix to carbon intensity target in nine scenarios. The main conclusion shows： ①In the scenario that economy grows at a high speed, if we should make substantial adjustment in energy mix, carbon intensity would decrease by 19% which would make 42.3%--47.6% of contribution to the achievement of the carbon intensity target. ②Conservatively, if only to achieve the target of energy mix improvement set in the national long-term energy development plan, the carbon intensity would drop by 15.6% in the scenario that economy grows at a low speed, and improving energy mix would contribute 34.6%-38.9% to the achievement of the carbon intensity target.

关 键 词：能源结构 碳强度目标 碳排放 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]