基于城市交通脆弱性核算的大雾灾害风险评估  

The Risk Assessment of the Fog Disaster Based on Vulnerability Calculating Related to the Urban Transportation Network

作　　者：扈海波[1] 熊亚军[2] 张姝丽[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089 [2]北京市气象局,北京100089

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2010年第6期732-738,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：北京市科技计划项目"城市突发气象灾害风险防范与快速响应关键技术研究"(Z09050616609001);北京市自然科学基金项目"空间改造GP适用与城市气象灾害评估的关键问题研究"(9102009)共同资助

摘　　要：选用大雾观测资料测算城市地区的雾灾危险性指数,以规则网格作为评估单元,逐网格计算网格区域内的路网密度,以此作为雾灾的空间脆弱性指标,并针对重点设施的分布情况对脆弱性指数进行空间叠加订正;选用网格内的人口密度作为雾灾的易损性指标;危险性、脆弱性及易损性3项指标按5:2:1的分配比例综合测算雾灾的风险指数。实例研究选用北京地区1996年1月—2006年12月的大雾资料,按空间网格化方法对大雾灾害风险进行评估,结果表明:北京地区雾灾脆弱性指数的高值区域与高速路及环城路延伸方向一致,城市中心为人口集中分布地区,其综合风险指数高,与高速路段、环城路及机场等地段均为雾灾的高风险区域,北京东南部地区年平均雾日数相对较多,危险性指数值也较高,是雾灾较高风险区域。In well-developed urban area,the atmosphere is full-filled with more aerosol than in suburban and rural area for industrial pollution and automobile emissions.It is evident that the accumulation of air pollutants contributes to the intensification of fog in urban.Fog has impacts on the living of citizens,especially in traffic affairs,in which fatal collision can cause casualties and death,further more the bad air quality in fog influences human healthy heavily.So it is very necessary to assess the risk of the fog disaster in city for emergency and disaster risk management.A new method is proposed to assess the urban fog disaster risks, calculating a risk index from fog probability,fragility and vulnerability,and the index is overlapped onto the map with GIS grid cell technology.The fog probability in urban area is determined based on the observatory data.The frequency of fog days is considered to be the probability of fog disaster,and for each grid cell a value is assigned.The Fragility Exponential（FE） is computed upon the regular gird cell,in which the density of the road net is its substitution while different road types have different weight coefficients in measuring the density,and the FE can be modified according to the important facility distribution. In the end,the density of the road net is normalized and considered to be the fragility of fog disaster. The population density is used as the index of vulnerability.Moreover,the probability,fragile,and vulnerability is composed by 5：2：1 to integrally sum up as the risk index of fog disaster in urban area.A 10- year fog observatory data of Beijing district is studied to assess the fog disaster risk by spatial grid.The result indicates that the high fragility value area is consistent to the extending of highway,ring-roads and high rank roads.High risk area of fog disaster distributes in urban central area with dense population, highway,ring-roads extension area and airport.It＇s also found that the frequency of fog in southeast area of Beijing is relat

关 键 词：城市大雾 危险性 脆弱性 易损性 风险评估 

分 类 号：P426.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]