主成分分析法在辽宁地区地震预测中的应用  

Application of Primary Components Analysis Method to Earthquake Prediction in Liaoning Province

作　　者：李永振[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省地震局,辽宁沈阳110034

出　　处：《西北地震学报》2011年第1期76-79,共4页Northwestern Seismological Journal

摘　　要：采用多因子分析的主成分分析法,选择与地震活动强度有关的地震频次N(ML≥3.0)、b值、η值、Mf值、A(b)值和Ac值等6个参量进行分析,实现对上述参量的有效约简,得到反映地震强度特征的综合指标W。发现指标W在辽宁海城7.3级、岫岩5.4级地震前出现明显的异常变化,震后恢复。表明综合指标W可以较好的反映地震活动的异常特征。Using the primary components analysis method,six main parameters for indicating seismicity strenth such as frequency N（ML≥3.0）,b value,η value,A（b） value,Mf value,Ac-value are selected to analyse.The parameters are simplified effectively and a new synthetic index W for indicating seismicity strenth is obtained.It is found that the index W appeared obvious anomalies before Haicheng MS7.3 earthquake in 1975 and Xiuyan MS5.4 earthquake in Liaoning province,and returned after events.It is shown that the synthetic index W can reflect anomalous characterisitic of seiemicity well.

关 键 词：辽宁 地震活动强度参数 主成分分析法 相关性 贡献率 

分 类 号：P315.51[天文地球—地震学]