我国近地层风能资源气候变化之未来情景预测  

PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE OF THE NEAR-SURFACE WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL OVER CHINA

作　　者：李艳[1,2] 汤剑平[3] 王元[3] 储惠芸[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆401147 [3]南京大学大气科学系,南京210093

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2011年第3期338-345,共8页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(40805039);江苏省高校自然科学研究计划指导性计划(08KJD170003);中国博士后科学基金(20090451233);江苏省博士后科学基金(0901049C);中国气象局公益性行业专项(2008416048)

摘　　要：利用全国600多个地面站40年的常规风速观测资料以及IPCC AR4的20C3M与SRES A2温室气体排放情景的实验与预测结果,对比选取了能够合理再现我国近地层风能资源主要分布特征的9个气候耦合模式,采用PLS线性多元回归方法建立的多模式集合模型,预测了我国近地层风能资源在21世纪的分布特征及气候变化特点。分析结果表明:未来我国陆域近地层风能资源的空间分布特征与20世纪后40年基本相同,但气候变化趋势存在较大差异;区域年平均风速在21世纪前半叶存在减弱趋势,但后半叶以增强趋势为主。The climate change of near-surface wind energy potential in the 21st century in China were investigated based on the simulations of the global climate models which were provided by IPCC AR4 DDC. The wind data in this study consists of long-term observations from 604 Chinese Routine Meteorological Stations from 1960-1999 and the outputs from the nine climate models under 20C3M and SRES A2 greenhouse gas Scenarios which are selected to agree with the characteristics of wind power at 10m height above the ground. The multi-models ensemble pattern based on the method of partial least-squares are built and used. The results showed that the spatial patterns of the mean near-surface wind power potential are similar to which occurred in 1960-1999, but the climate change are different. In addition, the regional mean wind speeds （90th percentile wind speed） will have downward trends in the first half of 21st century, but the uptrend will be the important in the last half.

关 键 词：风能资源 情景预测 IPCC AR4 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]