地震学异常度预测法的概念、计算与应用  

onception and calculation and application of the prediction method of seismological anomalyness

作　　者：陈立军 周霞 陈晓逢 

机构地区：[1]湖南省地震局,湖南长沙410001

出　　处：《华南地震》1999年第3期10-19,共10页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：地震科学联合基金!(199095)

摘　　要：地震学异常度预测法是基于ＣＡＰＳｅｉｓ软件对Ｎ值、蠕变值、能量值、ｂ值、缺震值、η值、ＧＬ值、Ｒ_ｍ值、Ｃ值、Ｄ值等１０项地震学预报指标空间扫描数据进行综合异常判定的方法。以华北及华东地区的地震资料为例，系统总结了该法的原理、计算方法、历史震例、地震学异常度预测图的判读原则与预测实例。结果表明，其预报效能明显高于各单一参量的统计概率。根据环江地震、嘉义地震的预报经验以及对环江地震和张北地震后两种不同类型震后效应的图象解释表明，地震学异常度预测法在地震短临预报和震后环境判断方面，有可能给我们带来一些新的希望。Based on space scanning results of ten seismological parameters, such as b-value, N- value, E-value, η-value, C-value, D-value, Seismless value, GL-value, R_m-value and so on, which are processed by CAPSeis software, a anomaly comprehensive decision method -- prediction method of seismological anomalyness (PMOSA) has been proposed. The fundamental, calculate procedure and explanatory principle of prediction images have been summarized. The prediction efficacy of the method is obviously better than any above mentioned single parameter. For example, the seismological data in North China and East China areas are analyzed. The results show that the method is one of advanced for the short - impending earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：短临预报 地震活动性图 地震活动异常 地震预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]