投资自由化背景下新加坡对华投资的动态一般均衡分析  

A Dynamic CGE Analysis of Singapore's Investment in China under the Background of Investment Liberalization

作　　者：祝树金[1] 彭思思[1] 谢锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《中国软科学》2011年第3期46-55,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(07﹠ZD017);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(10YJA790274);留学回国人员科研启动基金项目(教外司留[2010]1174号)的资助

摘　　要：基于中国-东盟投资自由协议签订的背景,本文区分了投资自由化的资本导向型和技术导向型增长效应,并考虑了其对于电子通讯行业和其他行业影响作用的差异性,采用中国动态CGE模型(MCHUGE模型),评估了投资自由化背景下新加坡对华投资对于我国宏观经济及产业发展的影响。结果表明,在宏观层面上,中-新投资自由化对刺激消费、扩大内需、增加就业、提高居民福利具有积极作用;在行业层面上,主要通过国内市场效应扩大了电子信息产业的产出,但减少了该行业的就业;促进了我国服务业和技术密集型产业的发展,而抑制了纺织业、服装业等传统制造业的产出增长,积极推动了我国产业结构的调整。Keeping in mind on the signing of investment agreement between China and ASEAN,this paper distinguishes investment-led and technology-led growth effects from investment liberalization,and considers their different effects on electronics industry and others.We apply the dynamic CGE model（MCHUGE model） to evaluate the effect of Singapore＇s investment liberalization on macroeconomic and industrial development.The results show that at the macro level further investment liberalization between China and Singapore will stimulate consumption,expand domestic demand,increase employment and improve residents＇ welfare.At the industry level,the investment liberalization will increase the output of the electronic information industry through the effects of the domestic market,but reduce employment in this industry.It will also promote the adjustment of industrial structure by simulating the development of services and technology-intensive industries and decrease the output of other traditional manufacturing such as textile and clothing.

关 键 词：投资自由化 电子通讯 动态CGE模型 

分 类 号：F114.41[经济管理—国际贸易]