漳河水库流域降雨与径流变化趋势的R/S分析  

R/S Analysis on Rainfall and Runoff Variation in Zhanghe Reservoir

作　　者：陈祖梅[1] 田树高[1] 彭丹芬[1] 陈崇德[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省漳河工程管理局,荆门市448156

出　　处：《浙江水利水电专科学校学报》2011年第1期33-36,共4页Journal of Zhejiang Water Conservancy and Hydropower College

摘　　要：依据漳河水库流域1963-2008年降雨与入库径流资料,利用R/S法对其未来变化趋势进行了分析,发现以1995年为突变点,前后两个系列的统计特征值均具有明显的差异,同时流域地区未来降雨量和径流量可能呈缓慢增加与减少的变化趋势,但未来1月和7月的径流量变化趋势的随机性成份可能很大,而流域人类活动日趋频繁,也使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化,对入库径流量有较大的影响.The rainfall and reservoir inflow tendency is analyzed by R/S approach based on the corresponding data of Zhanghe Reservoir from 1963 to 2008.It is found that the two series of statistical eigenvalue varied obviously in 1995 for mutating.The results show that the up-coming rainfall and runoff in river region may slowly increase or decrease,but the runoff from next January to July tends to change at random.And frequent human activities in the watershed also make the underlying surface complicated,which has a great influence on reservoir inflow.

关 键 词：降雨量 径流量 R/S法 

分 类 号：TV871.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]