新疆北疆林区森林火灾与气象因子的相关性分析  

Correlation Analysis of Forest Fires and Meteorological Factors in Northern Xinjiang Forest Region

作　　者：梁瀛[1] 雍宏 努尔古丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆林业科学院,乌鲁木齐830002 [2]新疆林业厅,乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《新疆农业科学》2011年第3期539-543,共5页Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区科技支疆项目"新疆森林火灾分区分类施治体系构建"(2009912560);国家林业公益性行业科研专项"新疆天山中部森林生态系统健康维护与经营技术研究"(200804022c);西北区(新疆;青海)典型森林类型净生产力多尺度长期观测与评价研究(200804006/rhh-06)

摘　　要：【目的】探讨气候变化对新疆北疆林区森林火灾的影响,以期提高北疆林区森林防火适应气候变化的能力。【方法】利用北疆地区1994~2008年森林火灾资料、气象资料,采用相关分析方法,分析北疆林区近15 a年降水量、年平均气温变化特征和森林火灾变化规律。【结果】近15 a来,北疆林区森林火灾次数总体呈增长趋势,年际变化有明显的阶段性。【结论】气温升高、年降水量波动差异增大,导致森林可燃物积累增多和干燥易燃等因素是北疆林区森林火险等级呈增高趋势的主要气候原因。气候变化对北疆林区森林火灾有潜在增加的趋势,林区森林防火形势将更加严峻。【Objective】The impact of climate change on forest fire was discussed,expetcting to raise the ability of the forest fire prevention and adapt to the change of climate in northern Xinjiang forest region.【Method】The variation rule of forest fires and the characteristics of annual rainfall and average temperature change in recent 15 years were analyzed using the data of forest fires and the meteorological data from 1994 to 2008 in northern Xinjiang forest region by the correlation analysis method.【Result】Results showed that the number of forest fire revealed a slightly increasing trend and the annual variability of forest fire has obvious phasic in recent 15 years in northern Xinjiang forest region.【Conclusion】The air temperature increased and the annual rainfall had great fluctuations,which lead to anincrease in the accumulation of inflammable substance in the forest and make them dry and inflammable.These climatic reasons caused the forest fire danger level revealed increasing trend in northern Xinjiang forest region.Forest fire prevention situation would be even more severe.

关 键 词：气候变化 森林火灾 气温 降水 

分 类 号：S762.1[农业科学—森林保护学]