1966～1976华北大震高潮回顾性预测——纪念唐山大震34周年  

REVIEWING PREDICTION OF THE HIGH TIDE OF LARAGE EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY FROM 1966 TO 1976 IN NORTH CHINA——IN MEMORY OF THE 34TH ANNIVERSARY OF TANGSHAN GREAT EARTHQUAKE

作　　者：郭增建[1] 郭安宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局兰州地震研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《内陆地震》2011年第1期1-5,共5页Inland Earthquake

摘　　要：1966～1976年华北的邢台大震、渤海大震以及唐山大震皆可由以29 a为周期的三性分布求出其发震年份。至于发震地区可由"静中动判据"求出是唐山地区和渤海莱州湾地区。邢台大震的位置可由立交模式来推求。1966～1976年这次大震高潮后由三性分布后延推知在2016～2017年华北可能会再次发生7级以上大震。The occurrence years of the great earthquakes in Xingtai, Bohai and Tangshan may be predicted by the temporal distribution of triplet method having the peiod of 29 years. As for the epicenters of Tangshan earthquake and Bohai earthquake may be predicted by the criterion of activity in quiescence. The epicenter of Xingtai earthquake may be predicted by the stereographic cross model. After the high tide of great earthquake activity from 1966 to 1976, we predict that great earthquake Ms ≥7 will possiblly occur in North China in 2016 by the triplet method.

关 键 词：华北大震 三性分布 静中动判据 立交模式 临界慢化 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]