我国青藏块体地区未来几年地震危险性分析  

SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS IN QINGHAI-TIBET BLOCK,CHINA IN FUTURE SEVERAL YEARS

作　　者：陈荣华[1] 李志海[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100036 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《内陆地震》2011年第1期6-11,共6页Inland Earthquake

摘　　要：研究了我国青藏块体地区每一地震活跃幕里地震活动的主体地区、地震活动强度和地震活动持续时间,认为2008年四川汶川8.0级地震的发生可能意味着我国青藏块体自1995年或1997年开始的地震活跃幕已经进入后期,同时也意味着这一地区自1920年以来更长时间尺度里的地震活动期也进入了收尾阶段。未来几年青藏块体地震活动水平为7级左右,发生7.5级以上地震的可能性不大。青藏块体地震活动何时进入一个新的地震活跃幕还有待观察,新的地震活跃幕的主体地区可能在第1或第3弧形地震带,并以发生多次7.5级以上地震为标志。The main region of seismic activity, seismic activity intensity and duration of seismic activity in every seismic activity episode were studied. The result showed that Wenchuan MS. 0 earthquake means the seismic activity episode from 1995 to 1997 and the seismic activity term since 1920 in Qinghai-Tibet block are coming into the evening. The seismic activity level is about MT. 0 in future several years for Qinghai-Tibet block, and the feasibility of M7. 5 earthquake occurring is not big in the region. When the new seismic activity episode for Qinghai-Tibet block will come, it will still remain to be seen, the main region of seismic activity episode will be the first or the third seismic belt, and the sign is the occurring of several M≥7.5 earthquakes.

关 键 词：地震活动主体地区 地震活动强度 地震活动持续时间 地震活跃幕 地震活动期 青藏块体 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]