模糊网络分析在海上风电项目风险评价中的应用  

Application of F-ANP in risk evaluation of offshore wind power projects

作　　者：李静[1] 孙亚胜 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116023 [2]中国港湾工程有限责任公司,北京100027

出　　处：《辽宁工程技术大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第1期96-99,共4页Journal of Liaoning Technical University (Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50708015)

摘　　要：针对海上风电项目施工期和运行期可能存在的风险,提出了基于三角模糊数的模糊网络分析方法。文章首先分析了海上风电项目风险的特点并指出了现有评价方法的不适用性,进而构建了海上风电项目的风险评价指标体系,结合海上风电项目风险的特点,整合多种风险评价方法,提出基于三角模糊数的模糊网络分析法,并将其应用到具体项目的风险评价中。实证分析表明,文章所提出的方法可以定量评价海上风电项目的风险,能够为我国海上风电项目的开发提供一定的决策理论依据。Aiming at the potential risks of offshore wind project,fuzzy analytic net process（F-ANP） method based on triangular fuzzy number（TFN） was put forward.Firstly,the paper introduced the characteristic of the projects＇ risk and briefly pointed out the inapplicability of existing risk evaluation methods in the evaluation of the offshore wind power projects.Secondly the risk evaluation system was established,and in accordance with the risk＇s feature,the paper integrated a variety of risk evaluation methods and the F-ANP based on TFN was put forward.Finally the proposed method was applied to an offshore wind project.Case study shows that the proposed method could evaluate the risk of offshore wind project,and provide basis for the development of offshore wind project.

关 键 词：海上风电 风险评价 模糊网络分析 

分 类 号：TB1[一般工业技术]