基于成分数据分析的广西三次产业结构分析与预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Three Industries Structure in Guangxi Based on Compositional Data Analysis

作　　者：李敦祥[1] 李志献[1] 

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学经济发展与规划研究所,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第9期5669-5670,共2页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：利用2000～2009年广西三次产业结构比重序列数据,运用logratio变换,消除成分数据中的冗余维度,建立成分数据预测回归模型,主要相关过称和结果通过软件Eviews6.0计算后,对2010～2013年广西三次产业的结构变化趋势进行预测,结果表明,广西经济结构发展整体未来趋势是第一产业比重逐步降低,第二产业比重显著提高,第三产业比重基本保持平衡状态。Data of three industries structure proportion sequence in Guangxi from 2000 to 2009 were used,and logratio transformation were utilized to eliminate redundance dimensionality in compositional data,then,the forecasting regression model of compositional data was established.After results of major stakeholders had passed the calculation of Eviews6.0,the prediction on the variation trend of three industries structure in Guangxi during 2010-2013 was carried out.The results indicated that the overall trends of economic structure in Guangxi were： the proportion of the primary industry reduced gradually,and the proportion of the secondary industry increased significantly,the proportion of the tertiary industry remained balance.

关 键 词：成分数据 产业结构 预测 分析 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]