Research on the Method of Shipping Risk Early-Warning Based on Matter-Element Theory  

作　　者：张宇 汪波 谭振东 

机构地区：[1]School of Management,Tianjin University [2]Military Transportation Institute of the General Logistics Department

出　　处：《Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong university(Science)》2011年第2期252-256,共5页上海交通大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：the Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin (No.07JCYBJC13100)

摘　　要：The purpose of shipping risk early-warning is that some effective measures are taken to reduce risk probability before the risk brings heavy loss.The shipping risk has the dynamic characteristic,so the key of early-warning is to choice risk early-warning index correctly and evaluate risk grade quantitatively.According to the element extension theory,the rhombus inference model is applied to establish the index system.And the problem of risk grade evaluation can be solved by the assessment model of multi-index performance parameter,which is developed by the extension engineering method.Finally,the main shipping risks and their grades are identified by the example analysis based on the statistical data,which shows the effective and feasible of the shipping risk early-warning method.The purpose of shipping risk early-warning is that some effective measures are taken to reduce risk probability before the risk brings heavy loss. The shipping risk has the dynamic characteristic, so the key of earlywarning is to choice risk early-warning index correctly and evaluate risk grade quantitatively. According to the element extension theory, the rhombus inference model is applied to establish the index system. And the problem of risk grade evaluation can be solved by the assessment model of multi-index performance parameter, which is developed by the extension engineering method. Finally, the main shipping risks and their grades are identified by the example analysis based on the statistical data, which shows the effective and feasible of the shipping risk early-warning method.

关 键 词：shipping risk early-warning method rhombus inference model matter-element theory 

分 类 号：U676.1[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]