中国西部OLR与秋季降水的关系  

Relationship Between OLR and Autumn Precipitation in West China

作　　者：陈少勇[1,2] 乔立[3] 林纾[1] 王劲松[1] 夏权[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省白银市气象局,甘肃白银730900 [3]西北区域气候中心,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱气象》2011年第1期1-9,共9页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"中国西部地区秋季降水机制研究"(40675066);甘肃省气象局"十人计划"资助

摘　　要：利用中国西部280站地面降水资料和NCEP再分析OLR资料,采用EOF、相关分析方法,分析了中国西部OLR与降水的关系。结果表明:(1)中国西部秋季OLR高值区与降水低值区相吻合,OLR低值区偏于降水高值区一侧。秋季OLR和降水具有显著的反相变化趋势。(2)西部秋季各月OLR与降水有大片显著的负相关区存在,在西北和东南象限OLR与降水的反位相变化关系更加密切,9月负相关显著区最大。(3)通过EOF分析,南疆盆地—青海高原西北部,是西部OLR变化最敏感的地方。分析敏感区OLR变化对秋季降水的影响,同期9月当吐鲁番OLR异常增大(减小)时,南疆西部、青海高原北部、甘南高原—陇中区域的降水偏多(少),西藏—川西高原降水偏少(多);10月内蒙西部OLR异常与新疆、陕北、川北、桂西有显著的反相变化;11月塔克拉玛干沙漠的OLR异常与陕西降水有显著的反相变化。异常敏感区OLR对秋季降水影响的前期月份主要是上年12月、当年4～6月和8月。(4)青藏高原OLR低值中心,从冬到夏向东向南移动。同期9月高原OLR低值升高,西藏高原降水增多、高原东北侧降水减少,10月高原OLR升高,高原降水增多、河西中部降水减少,11月两者无明显关系。对秋季降水影响的前期月份主要是当年1月、3月和6月。Based on precipitation from 280 meterological stations in west China and NCEP reanalysis data of OLR,the relationship between autumn precipitation anomaly and OLR in western China was analyzed using EOF,correlation analysis method.The main results are as follows：（1）The high value area of autumn OLR corresponded to the low value area of autumn precipitation,and the autumn OLR and precipitation had the remarkable opposite tendency,which indicated the increase（（reduction）of autumn OLR would cause the reduction（increase） of autumn precipitation;（2） There was a large remarkable inverse correlative region between autumn OLR and precipitation in west China,especially in northwest and southeast area of west China,and in September inverse correlative area was biggest;（3） By the EOF analysis,the autumn OLR was most sensitive in the southern Xinjiang basin and northeast of Qinghai plateau,in Septemper the abnormal increase（decrease） of the autumn OLR in Turpan of Xingjiang,the autumn precipitation in southwest Xinjiang,north region of Qinghai plateau,Gannan plateau and middle Gansu was more（few）,but in the Tibet and western Sichuan plateau was few（more）;In October the autumn OLR＇s abnormity in west Inner Mongolia Xinjiang would resulted in remarkable inverse change of autumn precipitation in Xinjiang,north Shaanxi,north Sichuan and west Guangxi;In November the autumn OLR＇s abnormity in Taklimakan desert would resulted in remarkable oppositive change of autumn precipitation in Shaanxi.The influence of OLR abnormity in sensitive area on autumn precipitation was maily in December of last year,April to June and August;（4） The low value center of OLR over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau moved to southeast from winter to summer.In September the plateau OLR low value ascension was propitious to increase of precipitation in Tibet Plateau but decrease in the northeast side of the plateau.In October,the low value ascension of OLR was in favor of precipitation increase（reduction） in the platea

关 键 词：中国西部 秋季降水 OLR EOF分析 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]