中国国内旅游消费与经济增长关系的实证分析  

An Empirical Study on Relation between Domestic Tourism Consumption and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：赵磊[1] 全华[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《经济问题》2011年第4期32-38,共7页On Economic Problems

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(09YJC790090);上海财经大学211工程三期重点学科建设项目

摘　　要：构建了国内旅游消费与经济增长之间的VAR计量模型,经过Johansen协整关系检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解,可以发现国内旅游消费与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,但是在短期内国内旅游消费对经济增长的拉动作用小于经济增长对国内旅游消费的推动作用;而在长期内国内旅游消费对经济增长的拉动作用要大于经济增长对国内旅游消费的推动作用。进而针对目前国内旅游消费与经济增长之间的互动关系提出了一系列建议。This paper verify the correlativity between domestic tourism consumption and economic growth by a VAR econometric model,find that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between domestic tourism consumption and economic growth,through cointegration test,granger causality test,impulse responses,and variance decomposition,but in short term,the role of domestic tourism consumption enforcing economic growth is less than it of economic growth enforcing domestic tourism consumption,furthermore,in long term,the role of domestic tourism consumption enforcing economic growth is greater than it of economic growth enforcing domestic tourism consumption.Finally,this paper gives a series of suggestion on the inter-reaction between domestic tourism consumption and economic growth.

关 键 词：国内旅游消费 经济增长 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 方差分解 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]