口腔医院系统发展对策生成与对策效应定量仿真评价  

Feedback Countermeasure Generating and Effective Simulation Analysis of System Development of Stomatology Hospital

作　　者：贾云香[1,2] 肖俊华[3] 贾仁安[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学系统工程研究所,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学口腔医院,江西南昌330006 [3]武警江西总队医院,江西南昌330010

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2011年第8期26-41,共16页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70761004)

摘　　要：医院系统是一个复杂系统.对此,采用对策生成与对策实施未来效应仿真评价法对南昌大学口腔医院发展进行研究.首先,对南昌大学口腔医院发展进行了深入调查与数据分析,然后,建立7个增长正反馈环和4个制约负反馈环构成的增长制约反馈基模,揭示现行系统发展的优势和存在的问题,又围绕7个增长正反馈环和4个制约负反馈环的内涵,依据消除制约的原理,提出了消除负反馈环制约的两项管理对策.接着,对管理对策未来实施效应进行仿真评价,基于评价指标建立流位流率系,基于调查数据值及比较分析建立七棵入树的仿真方程,建立仿真模型,分别对南昌大学口腔医院系统发展两项对策实施状况进行仿真评价,定量论证了所制定的管理对策的科学性及实施的必要性,为南昌大学口腔医院十二五规划编制与发展提供了决策依据.Hospital System is a complex system.To study this system, adopted a feedback countermeasure generating and effective simulation analysis method. First, this paper analyzes in depth real development and brings up archetype of limit-to-growth of seven growth positive feedback loops and four confine positive feedback loop. It quantificationally revealed advantages and disadvantages of system development. Secondly, by connote of seven growth positive feedback loops and four confine positive feedback loop, the paper brings up two management strategies of emission reduction. Finally, based on vertex Weighted Causal Diagrams vertex value and planning data, we built seven in-tree simulation models and variable equations, simulated the system behavior variation caused by the impletation of two management strategies. The result of simulation quantitatively proved scientific and necessary of management policies. It gave the basis for the planning of the twelfth of five years of the Stomatology hospital of Nanchang University.

关 键 词：口腔医院系统 反馈基模 管理对策效应仿真评价法 系统动力学 

分 类 号：R197.5[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]