基于模糊故障树的盾构隧道施工成本风险评估  

Risk assessment of shield tunnel construction cost using fuzzy fault tree

作　　者：郑俊杰[1] 林池峰[1] 赵冬安[1] 丁烈云[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学岩土与地下工程研究所,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《岩土工程学报》2011年第4期501-508,共8页Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering

基　　金：新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-06-649);武汉市科技攻关计划项目(200860423194)

摘　　要：基于模糊故障树的相关理论,提出用模糊成本重要度的指标来评价盾构隧道施工中各风险对总成本的影响大小。使用信心指数法将专家的分数修正为三角模糊数;基于表现定理推导出三角模糊数相乘的精确求法,并求得各风险的模糊成本重要度。通过分析模糊成本重要度指标,得出了在盾构施工前应首先规避的风险。该方法为盾构隧道施工成本的风险评估提供了一种科学和可靠的手段。Based on the relevant theories of fuzzy fault tree,the index of fuzzy cost importance is proposed to assess the effect of each risk on the total construction cost during shield tunnel construction.The assessment marks of experts are modified to triangular fuzzy numbers using the confidence index.Furthermore,an accurate calculation method for the multiplication of fuzzy numbers is derived,and the fuzzy cost importance of each risk is obtained according to the representation theorem.By analyzing the index of fuzzy cost importance,the risks that should be avoided primarily before the construction can be obtained.The proposed method provides a scientific and reliable means for the risk assessment of shield tunnel construction cost.

关 键 词：盾构隧道 成本 模糊故障树 信心指数 

分 类 号：U45[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]