黑龙江、松花江和嫩江冰坝凌汛发生原因及预报方法  

Cause and forecast of ice jam and run in Heilong River,Songhua River and Nenjiang River

作　　者：那济海[1] 周秀杰[2] 许秀红[1] 廖厚初 潘华盛[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气象台,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]黑龙江省气象信息中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [3]黑龙江省水文局,黑龙江哈尔滨150010

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2011年第2期115-120,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：黑龙江省科技攻关项目(GC06C10305)

摘　　要：利用1951-2000年水文、气象资料,在对黑龙江、松花江、嫩江发生的特大冰坝的年份监测中分析发现,冰坝发生大多在"二江"同时发生,个别年份有"三江"同时发生,并有群发特点。冰坝发生前,秋季降水多,河槽蓄水量多,河流水位高;冬季降雪多、气温低;春季开江期,有明显的降水和升温过程,是冰坝的形成和凌汛发生的重要原因。并且分析冰坝发生前期高空环流形势特点,依此研制了冰坝凌汛预报方法。Using hydrometeorological data observed from 1951 to 2000,the analysis of especially great ice jam in the Heilong River,Songhua River and Nenjiang River indicates that the ice jam occurs at same time in two rives frequently and in three rivers at times.Ample precipitation,large water storage in riverbed and high water level in river in Aulumn,abundant snowfall and lower temperature in winter and abvious precipitation and temperature rising in spring are important conditions to form ice jam and ice run.Circulation characteristis was also analyzed and predicting method for ice jam and ice run were presented.

关 键 词：冰坝洪水 成因 预报 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]