国内外不同尺度的旱灾风险评价研究进展  

Progress in research at home and abroad on risk assessment of drought in different regional scales

作　　者：贾慧聪[1,2] 王静爱[2,3,4] 

机构地区：[1]遥感科学国家重点实验室,中国科学院遥感应用研究所,北京100101 [2]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学区域地理研究重点实验室,北京100875 [4]地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室(北京师范大学),北京100875

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2011年第2期138-145,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD20B03)

摘　　要：作为旱灾风险管理实践的科学基础,旱灾风险评价愈来愈受到社会各界的广泛关注。在阅读大量文献的基础上,从4个不同的区域尺度对国内外旱灾风险评价研究进展作了综述。结果表明:(1)目前所有区域尺度研究中,农业旱灾风险评价研究较多;(2)地区尺度的旱灾风险评价是研究其他尺度的切入点,可为实现空间尺度上推(全球和国家尺度)和下推(县乡农户尺度)旱灾风险评价结果的转换提供依据;(3)随空间尺度从全球和大洲→国家→地区→地方尺度,旱灾风险评价的文献量逐渐增多,内容逐渐深入;(4)旱灾风险对饥荒和粮食安全的影响、农业系统和农作物承灾体的旱灾风险评价是目前研究的热点。在此基础上,指出旱灾发生频率较低但生态环境敏感区的旱灾风险评价需加强;从干旱灾害链的角度以及综合旱灾风险与脆弱性、恢复性、适应性的关系来研究旱灾风险是今后的重点。As the scientific basis for drought risk management practices,risk assessment of drought has got more and more extensive attention of all circles in society.In this paper,based on literature reading,drought risk assessment research at home and abroad was reviewed from four different regional scale.The results show that（1） agricultural drought risk assessment is currently the main research subject in all the regional scales;（2） regional-scale drought risk assessment is the entry point for studying other scales,could provide a basis for the up-scale conversion（global and state scale） and down-scale conversion（county,village,household scale） assessment results;（3） with the spatial scales from the global and continental to state,regional and down to local scale,drought risk assessment literature is gradually increased,with the deepened content gradually;（4） The impact of drought risk on famine and food security,drought disaster risk assessment of hazard-affected body of agricultural systems and crops is currently research hotspots.On this basis,the drought risk assessment with low frequency of drought,ecological sensitive areas,but should be strengthened.Research on drought risk from the perspective of drought disaster chains and integrating drought risk,vulnerability,resilience and adaptability should be the emphases in the future.

关 键 词：全球尺度 国家尺度 地区尺度 地方尺度 旱灾风险评价 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]