基于小波分析和灰色模型的用电量预测  

Electricity Consumption Forecasting Based on Wavelet Analysis and Gray Model

作　　者：黄永高[1] 卢毅[2] 

机构地区：[1]援江门供电局,广东江门529000 [2]援东南大学电气工程学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《电网与清洁能源》2011年第3期34-37,共4页Power System and Clean Energy

摘　　要：月度用电量同时具有增长性和季节波动性的二重趋势,针对月度用电量的这一变化特点,提出了一种基于小波分析和灰色预测模型的用电量预测方法,同时考虑春节影响因素,结合移位修正法对1月份和2月份的用电量进行修正。经过实例分析和计算,结果表明该方法有较高的预测精度,具有较好的适用性和可行性。The monthly electricity consumption possesses dual prnperties of increase and seasonal fluctuation simultaneously. For the change characteristics of the monthly electricity consumption, a forecasting method based on wavelet analysis and gray model for electricity consumption is proposed in this paper. Tile electricity consumption in January and February is modified by shift correction method for the effect of the Spring Festival. The forecasting resuhs indicate that this forecasting method improves the results accuracy, and therefore it is of high serviceability and the feasibility.

关 键 词：用电量 小波分析 灰色模型 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]