基于分布式水文模型的嘉陵江流域氮磷非点源污染负荷预测  

Prediction of non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus pollution load in Jialing River watershed based on distributed hydrological model

作　　者：吴磊[1,2] 龙天渝[1,2] 王玉霞[1,2] 卢齐齐[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室,重庆400045 [2]重庆大学城市建设与环境工程学院,重庆400045

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2011年第3期55-60,F0002,共7页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX07104-001和2009ZX07104-002);江苏省环境科学与工程重点实验室开放课题(Zd91201);国家科技支撑计划"长江上游坡耕地整治与高效生态农业关键技术试验与示范"(CSTS2009AB7036)

摘　　要：为研究在大尺度流域上以降雨径流为载体的非点源污染,以基于土地利用的分布式水文模型(SLURP Hydrological model)为基础,提出氮磷负荷预测模型及未来气象参数和土地利用分布图的构建方法。就嘉陵江流域土地利用、畜禽养殖和农业人口未来变化产生的总氮与总磷的月负荷量进行模拟和预测分析。结果表明,预测年降雨径流、畜禽养殖量的增加导致污染负荷增大,与基期年相比,氮磷负荷的月均值最大增幅均在6月,分别为28.6%和22.5%;因退耕还林等措施使土地利用调整后产生的负荷总量变化不大,但其贡献率依然最大。To study non-point source pollution carried by rainfall runoff in the large-scale basins,based on semi-distributed land use runoff processes（SLURP） model,the construction method for prediction models of total phosphorus（TP） and total nitrogen（TN） load,and the future meteorological parameters and land-use map were proposed respectively.By application of the proposed approaches,the monthly TP and TN loads of land use,livestock and agricultural population on the Jialing River watershed in the future were simulated and analyzed.The results showed that the increased volume of rainfall runoff,livestock and poultry in predicting year led to increased pollution load.Compared with the base year,the monthly maximum increases of nitrogen and phosphorus load were both in June,which were 28.6% and 22.5% respectively.The total land-use output load changed little together with changes of land-use types due to measures such as returning farmland to forests,but it was still the largest contribution.

关 键 词：氮 磷 负荷 非点源污染 模拟分析 SLURP水文模型 嘉陵江流域 

分 类 号：X506[环境科学与工程—环境工程]