中国投资率波动的度量与变化的分解(1993～2008年)  

The Measurement and Decomposition of the Fluctuations and Changes of China's Investment Rate:1993～2008

作　　者：方红生[1] 楼琳琳[2] 郭林[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学金融研究院 [2]浙江财经学院经贸学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2011年第4期64-81,共18页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金项目(Y6080332);浙江省优秀青年教师资助计划项目;浙江省高校人文社科重点研究基地(财政学);浙江大学金融研究院和浙江大学启明星计划的资助

摘　　要：本文从产业角度对中国投资率的波动和变化进行了度量和分解，结果表明，1993～2008年产业内效应解释了中国投资率波动的84．70％，而2000～2008年中国投资率持续上升期间，它的解释力上升到94．87％。除持续上升的2001年和2002年外，产业内效应中第二产业投资率的上升都主导着中国投资率的持续上升。中国投资率9年后才持续上升的根本原因是第二产业的投资率由降转升而致。This paper measures and decomposes the fluctuations and changes of China＇s investment rate from the industrial level. The results show that, during the period 1993～2004, within-industry investment rate fluctuations account for 84. 70% of investment rate fluctuations. However, their explanatory power increases to 94. 87% in 2000～2008. It is the increased investment rate in the secondary industry within-industry effects that has promoted persistent rise in the investment rate after 2002. The increase of the secondary industry＇s investment rate is the fun- damental reason why the level of China＇s investment rate has exceeded that of 1993 and kept rising trend only after 9 years. So we conclude that if the Chinese govern- ment wants to control the level of China＇s structure of consumption and investment, industry＇s investment rate. investment rate and achieves a reasonable it must control the level of the secondary industry＇s investment rate.

关 键 词：产业内效应 产业间效应 要素价格改革 生产性增值税 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]