基于单位GDP能耗的节能潜力分析方法与实证研究  

Methods for Analyzing Energy Saving Potential and its Empirical Research Based on Energy Consumption of Per Unit GDP

作　　者：熊华文 

机构地区：[1]能源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《中国能源》2011年第4期21-25,共5页Energy of China

基　　金：国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院2010年度基础科研项目;国家自然科学基金项目(70733005)资助

摘　　要：本文在整理、总结和评价关于节能潜力分析方法的基础上,根据当前形势的要求,提出了基于单位GDP能耗为分析对象的节能潜力分析框架和计算方法。按照这一框架及相应的节能量计算方法,对"十一五"实现节能量的构成和来源进行了实证性分析。主要结论包括:工业部门是实现目标的关键部门;建筑和交通部门节能效果显著;技术进步仍是实现目标的主要推动力量;结构调整发挥了积极作用。This paper presents a framework and methods for energy conservation potential analysis targeted at the energy consumption per GDP, which bases on summarizing and evaluating the existing methods. According to the framework and related methods for energy conservation potential calculation, it corroboratively puts forward a map about the structure and component of energy conservation achieved in the 11^th five- year plan. The main conclusions are as followings： the industrial sector is the key to achieve the target of energy conservation; the building and communication sectors also obtain the remarkable energy conservation; the technology progress is an important driving factor; and the economic structure acts a positive role as well.

关 键 词：单位GDP能耗 节能潜力分析 自上而下分解 实证研究 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]