西藏地区未来强震预测  

A forward prediction of strong earthquakes in the Tibet region

作　　者：秦四清[1] 薛雷[1] 黄鑫[1] 王媛媛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所工程地质力学重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2010年第6期1879-1886,共8页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-113;KZCX2-YW-Q03-02113);国家自然科学基金委重点项目(41030750)联合资助

摘　　要：运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与有关预测方法,确定了西藏地区各地震区分区的合理方案,对各地震区未来的地震趋势进行了分析,给出了未来有大地震发生的地震区地震震级、地点、临界应变(对应发震时间)、震源深度四要素在内的预测结果.结果表明,日土以北、聂荣以北、昌都与当雄地震区都将有破坏性地震发生.建议有关部门加强这些地区的地震活动性检测与震情跟踪,并制定相应的防震减灾措施.For the Tibet region, the rational division scheme of seismic zones is determined and the earthquake trend is analyzed in detail by using the brittle failure theory and multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and the associated prediction method. For the seismic zone where a large earthquake will occur, the prediction results including the magnitude, place, critical strain （corresponding to the occurrence time of earthquake）, and the hypocentral depth of an oncoming earthquake are provided. The analysis result indicates that a destructive earthquake will occur in the seismic zone in northern Ritu, the seismic zone in northern Nierong, the Changdu seismic zone and the Dangxiong seismic zone. Thus, it is suggested that the department concerned should pay more attention to monitoring the seismic activity and tracking the earthquake situation in these zones, and take precautions against earthquakes.

关 键 词：西藏地区 地震区 锁固段 预测方法 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]