中国股票市场发展与经济增长之间关系的实证研究  

The Relationship between Stock Market Development and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：史明坤[1] 邱兆祥[1] 张爱武[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经贸大学金融学院,北京100029 [2]太平洋证券股份有限公司,北京100044

出　　处：《金融理论与实践》2011年第4期3-8,共6页Financial Theory and Practice

摘　　要：本文根据批判现有研究在指标选择和分析方法应用上的做法的基础上,分别以融资规模、换手率和GDP实际增长率作为衡量股票市场规模、流动性和经济增长的指标,利用1992年第1季度至2010年第2季度的样本数据,通过Granger检验发现,在按照股票市场融资项目平均建设期选取的滞后阶数上,存在从股市规模到经济增长的单向Granger因果关系,也存在从经济增长到股市流动性的单向Granger因果关系。这一结果为股市发展促进经济增长的观点提供了有力的支持性证据。Based on the sample from China within the period from the first quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 2010,The paper executes a Granger causality test for the relationship between stock market development and economic growth,with funds collected and turnover rate as the indicators of the size and liquidity of stock markets,and the real growth rate of GDP as the indicator of economic growth.The paper finds that there exists a one-way Granger causality relationship from the size of stock markets to economic growth,and a one-way Granger causality relationship from economic growth to the liquidity of stock markets,which brings about some positive evidence on the assertion that stock market development helps to stimulate economic growth.

关 键 词：股票市场 经济增长 GRANGER检验 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]