改革开放以来我国货币供给周期波动特征  

Business Cycle Features of Chinese Money Supply since Opening up

作　　者：向书坚[1] 徐海云[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院统计学系 [2]江西财经大学金融与统计学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2011年第3期30-35,共6页Statistical Research

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET20720855);桂林工学院人才引进基金项目(0066011261;006011262)资助

摘　　要：货币供给的周期波动是国民经济发展过程中的必然现象,其周期波动的测定与分析是制定货币政策的基础。本文首先对我国M0、M1和M2三层次货币供给的时间序列进行HP滤波与平稳化,然后利用现代谱分析方法对我国货币供应的周期波动特征进行了测定与分析,结果显示:改革开放以来我国M0和M1供给均存在季节波动、3年、6个月和4个月左右的周期波动;M2存在10年、4年以及3年左右的周期波动;所有层次货币供应的变动幅度与长期趋势间存在线性关系。The business cycle of money supply is an inevitable phenomenon in the national economy development.The measurements and analysis of the business cycle are the basis of monetary policy＇s making.After detrending and stationalizing the trend components of money supply in M0,M1 and M2 using the HP filter,the business cycle features of Chinese money supply are measured and analyzed by modern spectral analysis.The results show that since China＇s reform and opening-upⅰ） the time series of M0 and M1 have seasonal fluctuation and business cycles whose periods are about 3 years,6 and 4 months respectively;ⅱ）for M2,the periods of business cycles are about 10,4 and 3 years;ⅲ） there are linear relationship between the amplitude of business cycles and trend component for M0,M1 and M2.

关 键 词：HP滤波 功率谱 极大熵谱估计 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]