基于小波分析的大伙房水库流域降水周期分析  

Cycle Analysis on Precipitation in Dahuofang Reservoir Basin Based on Wavelet Analysis

作　　者：曹永强[1] 张兰霞[1] 郝晓博[2] 刘琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水力发电》2011年第4期24-27,50,共5页Water Power

摘　　要：用降水距平和莫莱(Morlet)小波函数,对大伙房水库流域近50年来降水的季节变化和年际变化时间序列进行了小波分析。研究结果表明,近50年来,大伙房水库流域春、夏、秋、冬和年平均降水分别存在6、9、16、6a和10 a的主周期。在主周期分析基础上,预测研究区在2005年之后未来一段时间季、年平均降水都不同程度、不同时间范围仍将处于降水偏多阶段。小波分析的时频局部化特性可展现降水时间序列的精细结构,为分析降水多时间尺度变化特征、短期降水预测等预防洪水灾害等关键问题研究提供了一种新途径。Based on the monthly rainfall data from 1956 to 2006, wavelet analysis was carried out on the seasonal and annual variation of precipitation in the past 50 years in Dahuofang Reservoir basin by precipitation anomalies and the Morlet wavelet function. The results show that the average precipitation in spring, summer, autumn, winter and year exists the primary cycle of 6 years, 9 years, 16 years, 6 years and 10 years respectively, and the season and annual average precipitation after 2005 is predicted to be more than the normal level with different degrees and in different time intervals. The time-frequency localization characteristic of wavelet analysis, which can show the fine structure of precipitation time series, provides a new way for the key issues of flood prevention study such as the analysis of precipitation variation in multi-time scales and short- term rainfall forecast.

关 键 词：MORLET小波分析 多时间尺度 降水周期 大伙房水库流域 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]