逐步衰老矿区吨煤收益发展规律数理预测模型  

Mathematical Forecast Model for Development Regularity of Per Ton Takings in Declining Mines

作　　者：刘长武[1] 马利伟[2] 周晓明[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院,成都610065 [2]四川省林业调查规划院,成都610081

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2011年第2期1-5,共5页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50879049;50574064);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB226802)

摘　　要：针对邢台矿区出现的矿区或矿井后备储量不足、优质资源逐渐枯竭的问题,通过多年的探索与实践,总结出一套有效提高资源回收率的措施,通过实施取得了良好的社会效益。采用灰色系统理论和回归分析经济模型对矿区煤炭吨煤收益及其随着社会经济发展而变化的规律进行了预测分析,得出了在当前条件下,无论是烟煤还是无烟煤的回收开采都能为企业带来良好的经济效益,并提出了以烟煤产量保障矿区经济效益的企业发展战略模式,为提高资源回收率措施的推广提供了理论支持。With the mining time and production capacity increasing, shortage of back up reserve and exhaustion of quality resources have been found in a number of mining areas in the east of China. A series of effective measures to improve the recovery rate of the resource in Xingtai mining area has obtained good social efficiency through many years of exploration and practice. Using the gray system theory and the economic model of regression analysis, this paper analyzes and predicts the per ton takings of mined coal and its rule which changes with socio-economic development and concludes that the recovery work of either the bituminous coal or the anthracite coal could bring good economic efficiency for the enterprise. The paper puts forward a strategic pattern of the enterprise＇s development to ensure economic efficiency by the output of the bituminous coal, providing theoretical support for extending the measures of improving the recovery rate of the resource.

关 键 词：回收率 经济效益 灰色系统理论 回归分析 

分 类 号：TD32[矿业工程—矿井建设]