1960-2004年金沙江径流量特征及其对气候变化的响应  

Runoff of the Jinsha River: Characteristics and Its Response to Climate Change

作　　者：卓嘎[1] 建军 边巴次仁[1] 

机构地区：[1]西藏高原大气环境科学研究所,西藏拉萨850000 [2]西藏山南地区气象局,西藏泽当856000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2011年第2期405-415,共11页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCFS-09-19);中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2010M24);中国气象局气候变化专项项目(CCSF2008-20)资助

摘　　要：基于金沙江流域内1960-2004年的水文、气象站观测数据,分析了区域内径流量的年际、年代际变化以及气候因素(如降水量、平均气温)对径流变化的影响.结果表明:近40a来径流量呈现逐渐增加趋势,并且支流雅砻江为金沙江径流量的主要产流区;干流与支流均存在年代间丰枯转移,20世纪60年代、90年代偏丰,70年代偏枯;干流夏半年产流量稍微大于支流,支流冬半年产流量明显大于干流;M-K检验揭示出在1966年和1997年前后存在显著突变现象.金沙江流域1970年代处于少雨阶段,其他年代均为多雨阶段;1960-1970年代处于低温阶段,1980年代后为高温阶段,降水量、气温的增加均以2000年后较为突出.年降水量,尤其是上游地区年降水量极大地影响着年径流量的变化,春季径流量不仅受同期降水量和温度(负相关)影响,还与前期气温存在正相关;夏季径流量受同期和前期降水量的影响;秋季径流量受同期降水量和前期降水量、气温(负相关)的共同影响;冬季径流量受同期气温(正相关)及前期降水量的影响.The Jinsha River,one of the largest rivers in the Southwest China,has the characteristics that its runoff variation plays an important role to the temporal and spatial water resources variation in most areas of China.However,only few studies focus on the features of runoff in the Jinsha River basin up to present.In this paper,the annual,decadal variations of runoff and the effect of climate factors（such as precipitation and mean air temperature） on runoff from 1960 to 2004 in the Jinsha River basin are investigated.It is found that： 1） the runoff has gradually increased in the past 40 years and the Yalong River（a main tributary） basin is the main runoff producing area.There were evident decadal variation in flood and dry season both in mainstream and tributary stream.Namely,runoff was rich in the 1960s and the 1990s but poor in the 1970s.Runoff yield from mainstream is somewhat larger than that from tributary streams during the summer half year,while that from the latter is obviously larger than that from the former during winter half year.Besides,M-K test reveals that notable abrupt change of annual runoff took place somewhere in 1966 and 1997.In addition,the Jinsha River basin was dry and rainless in the 1970s but rainy in other period.Air temperature was quite low in the 1960s and the 1970s,but pretty high after the 1980s,with an evident increase in precipitation and air temperature after 2000.2） Annual precipitation,especially the precipitation of upper reaches of the river,greatly affects the variation of annul runoff yield.Runoff in spring is not only influenced by precipitation and temperature（negative relation） in the corresponding period,but is also positively dependent on the temperature of the prior period,while runoff in summer mostly depends on precipitation.Runoff in autumn is jointly influenced by the precipitation in the corresponding period and the precipitation and air temperature in the prior period.Runoff in winter is influenced by temperature（positive relation） in the co

关 键 词：金沙江 径流变化 趋势分析 气候变化 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]