卡拉水电站田三滑坡体风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Tiansan Landslide in Kala Hydropower Station

作　　者：马聪[1] 谭跃虎[1] 何世海[2] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学工程兵工程学院,江苏南京210007 [2]中国水电顾问集团华东勘测设计研究院,浙江杭州310014

出　　处：《岩土工程技术》2011年第2期75-80,共6页Geotechnical Engineering Technique

摘　　要：滑坡体的风险分析是决定坝址比选的控制性因素之一。通过对卡拉水电站田三滑坡体现场勘察和数据分析,建立滑坡风险分析模型;利用Bayes优化法以及蒙特卡罗(Monte—Carlo)统计方法确定计算参数;考虑暴雨、蓄水、地震等工况组合,对田三滑坡体进行了稳定性、涌浪以及堵江分析。田三滑坡体风险分析结果为该地区滑坡失稳探讨提供借鉴,进而为坝址选择提供决策依据。Risk analysis of landslide is one of the critical factors for the selection of dam site. Through field investigation and data analysis of Tiansan landslide in Kala hydropower station, risk analysis model is estabhshed. With Bayes statistical methods and Monte Carlo method to determine the parameters, considering the combination of rainstorm state, water--storage conditions, earthquake and other conditions, the analysis of stability, surge and river blockage of Tiansan landslide are done. Risk analysis of Tiansan landslide provides experience for failure mechanism in the region, which will facilitate the determining of the dam site selection.

关 键 词：滑坡体 水电站 风险分析 稳定性 

分 类 号：TV-139.2[水利工程]