车辆技术状态预测的模型化方法  

Modeling Method for Prediction of Technological Conditions of Vehicles

作　　者：董翡翠[1] 郝宇欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]北方交通大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道车辆》1999年第9期24-26,共3页Rolling Stock

摘　　要：建立了评价铁道车辆技术状态等级的概率模型，为估计当前和预测未来车辆技术状态等级及其分布提供了直观有效的方法，并在此基础上，为车辆管理和检修制度的改革提出了建议。The probability model to evaluate the grade of technical conditions of rolling stock is set up.It provides an objective and effective method to estimate the present and predict the future grades,as well as their distribution.And on this basis,suggestions are given for the reform of rolling stock run and the inspection & maintenance system.

关 键 词：等级概率模型 状态修 技术状态 列车 

分 类 号：U279[机械工程—车辆工程]