近60年来中国大陆降水、气温动态及其相互关系的初步研究  

Research of dynamics and relationship of precipitation and temperature in the recent 60 years in China

作　　者：李佩成[1] 郭曼[1] 王丽霞[1] 李启垒[1] 徐斌[1] 李军媛[1] 郑飞敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学水与发展研究院气候变化研究小组,西安710054

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2011年第4期29-36,共8页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金："111"干旱半干旱地区水文生态与水安全学科创新引智基地项目(B08039)

摘　　要：采用统计学方法,依据中国22个水文站点的资料,作出近60年来降水和气温的动态图,对22幅图逐个进行综合评价,并对降水和气温之间的相关关系进行分析,得出如下主要结论:a.中国近60年来降水表现为波动变化,年际间有增有减,各不相同,无统一增减趋势;b.气温变化亦呈波动状态,近10～20年期间多数站点气温确有增高趋势,但有些站点却表现为下降趋势,得不出统一变暖的结论;c.从降水与气温的相互影响来看,在降水多的时段或年份气温偏低,但也有相反情况,因而得不出由于气温升高,降水量统一增加或统一减少的结论;d.大多数站点降水与气温之间的相关关系并不显著,这表明降水与气温的变化还可能分别受制于某些重大影响因素;e.中国作为世界的一部分,从对中国60年来降水及气温资料的分析,似乎得不出全球气候一直变暖的结论。Based on 60 years＇ data from 22 hydrological stations in China,the dynamic changes of precipitation and temperature are analyzed by statistical method,and the correlation between precipitation and temperature was evaluated comprehensively.The main conclusions are as follows： a.Precipitation shows fluctuation in recent 60 years in China.It increases in some years and decreases in the other years,without the unified changes.b.The temperature change also has been in fluctuation.During the recent 10 to 20 years,the date from most hydrological stations shows increasing trend,but the data of some hydrological stations have shown the decreasing trend.So,it is hard to obtain a conclusion of global uniform warming.c.From the interrelationship between precipitation and temperature,in some periods or years,there was more precipitation with lower temperature,but the opposite situation also existed.Accordingly,it is difficult to draw a conclusion that temperature increase can lead to precipitation uniform increase or decrease.d.The correlativity between precipitation and temperature at most of the hydrological stations did not show significant positive or negative correlation.It shows that precipitation and temperature are likely to be conditioned by some other significant factors respectively.e.From the hydrological and meteorological analysis of China as one part of the world,we cannot conclude that global climate has the trend of changing warm.

关 键 词：气候变化 降水量 气温 相关分析 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]