层次分析法在井控风险可控诱因分析中的应用  

THE APPLICATION OF AHP METHOD IN WELL CONTROL RISK EVALUATION BY CONTROLLABLE FACTOR ANALYSIS

作　　者：刘刚[1] 金业权[1] 李峰[2] 喻海霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)石油工程学院,山东青岛266555 [2]中国石油塔里木油田分公司,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《西南石油大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第2期137-141,17,共5页Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Science & Technology Edition)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAB37B02);山东省自然科学基金(Y2007F45)

摘　　要：做好井控风险诱因评估工作,是有效降低井控事故发生、减少事故损失的基础。层次分析法是对较为复杂、较为模糊的问题作出定量评估的方法。通过文献调研,利用层次分析法的基本原理建立了井控风险可控诱因评价的三级指标体系,构建了分析可控因素诱发井控风险权重的计算模型,求出了各诱因权重值,为正确识别和防范可控因素诱发的井控风险提供了可借鉴的理论依据,并可为现场有效防范井控风险提供参考。There are many factors that trigger the well control risk.Therefore,the assessment job about the degree of influence on well control incentives is a basic work that may reduce the well control accident and damage.Analytic hierarchy process is an effective evaluation method.Based on the review of related references,this paper establishes a three-level evaluation index system of controllable incentives.By using the basic principles of AHP method to build a weight model,the analysis on controllable factors induced ell control risk is done and weight values of each incentive are figured out.It provides exemplary theoretical basis for identification and prevention of controllable factor induced well control risk,and supplies reference on the well control risk preventing.

关 键 词：井控 风险 风险评价 层次分析法 权重 

分 类 号：TE21[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]