1951-2009年冬季北京极端低温事件变化分析  

Variation of Extreme Cold Events in Beijing During the Winter from 1951 to 2009

作　　者：许国宇 

机构地区：[1]北京市房山区气象局,北京102488

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2011年第1期23-26,共4页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD04B01)资助

摘　　要：根据1951-2009年冬季北京观象台逐日最高、最低气温资料,对近59 a冬季北京极端低温事件的发生频次、强度进行了分析。结果表明,近59 a冬季北京极端低温事件呈减少趋势,且在1984年冬季存在气候突变点,1984年后为极端低温事件相对低发期;随着极端低温事件发生频次减少,强度也趋于减弱,20世纪80年代之后极端低温温度距平以正为主。进一步分析表明,近59 a冬季,75.3%的日极端低温事件出现在[-5℃,0℃)温度区间,74.6%的夜极端低温事件出现在[-15℃,-10℃)温度区间,在各温度区间1984-2009年冬季平均每年发生的极端低温事件均明显少于1951 1983年冬季平均,且在气温偏低一侧减少更明显。Using Beijing meteorological station daily surface maximum and minimum temperature data from 1951 to 2009,variation of the frequency and extent for extreme cold events for the last 59 winters are analyzed.It is found that extreme cold events decrease obviously for the last 59 winters,and abrupt climate change occurred during the winter of 1984,after which the frequency of extreme cold events was relatively lower.With frequency decreasing,extent of extreme cold events also tended to weaken,and temperature anomalies of extreme cold events after 1980s were mainly positive.Further analysis indicates that almost 75.3% of cold days and 74.6% of cold nights broke up at the maximum temperature ranges from-5 ℃ to 0 ℃ and minimum temperature ranges from-15 ℃ to-10 ℃ separately.Average frequency of extreme cold events during the winter from 1984 to 2009 were significantly less than that from 1951 to 1983 over all the temperature ranges and reduced obviously over the lower side of the temperature ranges.

关 键 词：极端低温事件 频次 强度 气候突变 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]