基于可变模糊识别模型的大连市水资源承载能力研究  

Study on Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Dalian Based on Variable Fuzzy Recognition Model

作　　者：周惠成[1] 柴智平[1] 何斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建设工程学部,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2011年第2期46-51,59,共7页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50079005)

摘　　要：在总结众多研究成果的基础上,阐述了水资源承载能力的内涵,提出了具体的水资源承载能力综合评价指标体系和量化计算模型。将可变模糊识别模型应用到大连市1996年-2007年水资源承载能力综合评价研究当中,结果表明,大连市水资源整体上处于可承载状态但已接近极限。提出了提高大连市水资源承载能力的途径,并计算大连市2020年及2030年三种不同供水条件下的水资源承载能力。This paper explains the connotation of water resources carrying capacity based on summarizing a number of researches.Meanwhile,a generalized indicator system and a calculating model for water resources carrying capacity are established.The variable fuzzy recognition model is applied to analyze the water resources carrying capacity evolution in Dalian from 1996 to 2007.The results show that the water resources in Dalian is underexploited in general but approaches to the limit.Two methods of improving the water resources carrying capacity are displayed.Then the water resources carrying capacity in Dalian in 2020 and 2030 is calculated respectively under three different water supply scenarios.

关 键 词：水资源承载能力 可变模糊识别模型 评价指标 大连 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]