基于水资源配置情景的地下水演变模拟研究——以海河流域平原区为例  

Simulation Study of Groundwater Evolution based on Water Resources Allocation Scenarios——A Case Study in Haihe River Basin

作　　者：杜思思[1,2] 游进军[2] 陆垂裕[2] 张彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学工程技术学院,北京100083 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2011年第2期64-68,共5页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(508790915093900651021006);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201101016);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2008ZX07207-006)

摘　　要：在分析研究国内外地表水-地下水联合应用模型研究现状基础上,提出水资源配置模型与地下水模型联合运用实现用水变化情景下的海河平原区地下水演变模拟。通过数据展布构建两个模型不同时空尺度的数据转换输入。通过动态插值推求从水资源配置水平年年数据结果到连续时间过程的地下水模拟模型动态时间序列数据输入,进而模拟以现状为初始状态的地下水演变趋势。通过不同条件的配置情景模拟得出未来海河平原地下水演变规律以及南水北调工程和地下水限采措施的影响。结果表明,在没有南水北调情景下,海河平原区在2005年-2020年期间地下水负均衡量将接近50亿m3,南水北调工程通水后负均衡量减少到不足14亿m3,典型漏斗区的水位将少下降525 m,地下水恶化的趋势将得到有力的缓解。A methodology of modeling coupling to combine water allocation model and numerical groundwater model was put forward based on the summary of current achievements related to surface-groundwater combination modeling.The coupling model is applied in Haihe River Basin to forecast the evolution of groundwater under different scenarios of water utilization and other changing boundary conditions.Method of data processing from output of water allocation mode to groundwater model was analyzed and designed based on data distribution on both spatial and time scale in order to solve the critical point of down scaling for model coupling.Interpolation was applied to transfer the results of water allocation in the year level to continuous time series for groundwater model.The simulation of groundwater evolution was initiated from the current status with the interpolated time series representing the future water pumping and recharge.Application in Haihe River Basin verified the feasibility of the coupling method.The results of simulation in the plain areas of Haihe River Basin showed that the deficit of groundwater would approach to 5 billion m3 without South-to-North Water Diversion Project（SNWDP） comparing with the 1.4 billion m3 deficit if the Phase I of SNWDP was commenced in 2015.Meanwhile,the decline of groundwater table would be averagely 5-25m less if the SNWDP took effect although the water table continued declining.The trend of deteriorating groundwater environment would be totally relieved with the SNWDP,but more strategies and strict measures should still be necessary to reach the water balance of groundwater and healthy evolution.

关 键 词：水资源配置 地下水模拟 南水北调 海河流域 

分 类 号：TV211.120[水利工程—水文学及水资源]