Changes in Seasonality in China under Enhanced Atmospheric CO_2 Concentration  

作　　者：XIA Jiang-Jiang YAN Zhong-Wei ZHOU Wen 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China [2]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China [3]School of Energy and Environment, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Centre, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2011年第1期12-17,共6页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421401);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41005039);Hong Kong Environment and Conservation Fund (ECF)project (Grant No. 9211008);City University of Hong Kong(Grant No. SRG7002505)

摘　　要：Seasonality changes in China under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations were simulated using nine global climate models, assuming a 1% per year increase in atmospheric CO2. Simulations of 20th century experiments of season changes in China from the periods 1961-80 to 1981-2000 were also assessed using the same models. The results show that the ensemble mean simula- tion of the nine models performs better than that of an individual model simulation. Compared the mean climatology of the last 20 years in the CO2-quadrupling experiments with that in the CO2-doubling ones, the ensemble mean results show that the hottest/coldest continuous-90-day （local summer/winter） mean temperature in- creased by 3.4/4.5℃, 2.7/2.9℃, and 2.9/4.1℃ in Northeast （NE）, Southwest （SW）, and Southeast （SE） China, respectively, indicating a weakening seasonal amplitude （SA）, but by 4.4/4.0℃ in Northwest （NW） China, indicating an enlarging SA. The local summer lengthened by 37/30/66/54 days in NW, NE, SW, and SE China, respec- tively. In some models, the winter disappeared during the CO2-quadrupling period, judging by the threshold based on the CO2-doubling period. The average of the other model simulations show that the local winter shortened by 42/36/61/44 days respectively, in the previously mentioned regions.Seasonality changes in China under elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were simulated using nine global climate models,assuming a 1% per year increase in atmospheric CO 2.Simulations of 20th century experiments of season changes in China from the periods 1961 80 to 1981 2000 were also assessed using the same models.The results show that the ensemble mean simulation of the nine models performs better than that of an individual model simulation.Compared the mean climatology of the last 20 years in the CO 2-quadrupling experiments with that in the CO 2-doubling ones,the ensemble mean results show that the hottest/coldest continuous-90-day (local summer/winter) mean temperature increased by 3.4/4.5°C,2.7/2.9°C,and 2.9/4.1°C in Northeast (NE),Southwest (SW),and Southeast (SE) China,respectively,indicating a weakening seasonal amplitude (SA),but by 4.4/4.0°C in Northwest (NW) China,indicating an enlarging SA.The local summer lengthened by 37/30/66/54 days in NW,NE,SW,and SE China,respectively.In some models,the winter disappeared during the CO 2-quadrupling period,judging by the threshold based on the CO 2-doubling period.The average of the other model simulations show that the local winter shortened by 42/36/61/44 days respectively,in the previously mentioned regions.

关 键 词：seasonality in China global warming SCENARIO CO2-increase experiment 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S718.512.1[农业科学—林学]