考虑不确定因素的逐步倒推法电网规划  

Successive Backward Method for Network Planning Considering Uncertainty Factors

作　　者：王淳[1] 欧阳年会[1] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学信息工程学院,南昌330031

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2011年第2期50-53,共4页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：针对电力市场环境下输电网络规划面临大量不确定因素的影响,提出考虑不确定因素的逐步倒推法电网规划方法。该方法采用半不变量法计算节点注入功率的各阶半不变量,按直流潮流方程计算状态相量的各阶半不变量,取一阶半不变量为节点状态相量的期望值,二阶半不变量的开二次方为其均方差,并定义待选线路功率的期望值与其投资的二次方之比为其有效性指标。修改的18节点系统和46节点系统验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。该方法计算速度快、且不存在收敛问题,能够用于实际电网规划中。Because of the uncertain factors in electricity market environment,a successive backward method for network planning consdering uncertainty factors is proposed.The cumulant method is to calculate all order cumulants of nodal injection powers and the D.C.load flow equations is to calculate state vector＇s all order cumulants.The first-order cumulants are taken as nodal state vector＇s expected values and the second-order cumulants are taken as nodal state vector＇s standard deviations,and the ratio of the expected value of active power of the elected line to the square of its investment is defined as the effectiveness indicators.The method is proved to be feasible and effective through the modified 18-bus system and the 46-bus system.The proposed method has high calculation speed,and does not hare convergence problems,so it can be used in practical network planning.

关 键 词：输电网规划 不确定因数 半不变量法 逐步倒推法 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]