河南省经济增长周期分析  

The Analysis of Economic Growth Cycle in Henan Province

作　　者：刘荣利[1] 

机构地区：[1]中共洛阳市委党校管理教研部,河南洛阳471003

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第10期6161-6163,6174,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河南省政府决策研究招标项目(2010A394);河南省哲学社科规划项目(2010CJJ024)

摘　　要：根据历年《河南统计年鉴》所提供的1978～2009年实际GDP时间序列数据,建立Hodrick-Prescott滤波模型,将其分解为趋势成分(潜在产出)和波动成分(产出缺口)两者之和。滤波模型的关键分界位置分别为1980、1988、1996、2007这4个波峰年,以及1984、1992、2002这3个波谷年,把改革开放以来河南经济增长波动划分为3个完整周期和2个不完整周期。结合省内外经济形势与背景,初步总结了各增长周期的阶段性特征以及导致波动的可能原因。整体来看,河南经济增长周期呈现出一定的收敛性,可持续性和稳定性均有所增强,越来越表现出增长型周期的特征。According to the data of practical GDP time sequences from 1978 to 2009 provided by Henan Statistical Yearbook of every year,Hodrick-Prescott filter model is established,and it is disintegrated into tendency component（potential yield） and fluctuation component（yield gap）.The critical division loci of filter model are 4 wave crest years（1980,1988,1996 and 2007）,and 3 trough years（1984,1992 and 2002）.Thus since the opening up and reform,the economic growth fluctuation of Henan can be divided into 3 complete cycles and 2 incomplete cycles.Based on the economic situation and background within and without province,we preliminarily conclude the stage-characteristics of all growth cycles and the probable reasons of fluctuation.On the whole,the economic growth cycle of Henan takes on astringency to some extent,and sustainability and stability are reinforced,showing the characteristics of growth-type cycle increasingly.

关 键 词：经济周期 Hodrick-Prescott滤波法 经济增长 河南 

分 类 号：F037.1[经济管理—政治经济学]