基于多维灰色Gm(1,1)模型的奥运会中外女子游泳成绩预测研究  

GRAY PREDICTION ON CHINESE AND FOREIGN WOMEN'S SWIMMING ACCOMPLOSHMENTS IN THE OLYMPIC GAMES BASED ON GM(1,1) MODEL OF MULTIDIMENSIONAL GRAY

作　　者：涂春景[1] 杜和平[1] 王玮[1] 

机构地区：[1]井冈山大学体育学院,江西吉安343009

出　　处：《井冈山大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第2期92-95,共4页Journal of Jinggangshan University (Natural Science)

基　　金：江西省2010年度教改项目(JGJG-10-15-23)

摘　　要：以第21～29届奥运会和第5～11届全运会女子游泳项目第一名成绩为时间序列,建立灰色预测模型并编制相应MATLAB下的预测模型和检验程序,结合多维模型群与新信息替代模型对2012年伦敦、2016年里约热内卢奥运会中外女子游泳成绩进行预测研究。预测结果表明:奥运会女子游泳项目已进入快速发展时期,过半奥运会游泳成绩记录将在30届或31届奥运会被刷新;中国女子游泳各项目成绩将与国际水平进一步接近。Taken the first scores of Women＇s swimming accomplishments from No.21 to No.29 Olympic Games and also from NO.5 to No.11 National Games as time series,we establish gray prediction and the corresponding MATLAB prediction model and testing procedure.While predicting the women＇s swimming results in 2012 London Olympic Games and 2016 in Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games by multi-dimensional models and new information substitution model.The tests show Gray GM（1,1） model has high accuracy.The conclusion suggests the Olympic swimming events will entered a rapid developing period,and most of the existing Olympic swimming records will be broken by the 30th and 31st Olympic Games;Chinese women＇s swimming achievements will be substantially improved,with closer to international standards.

关 键 词：灰色预测 MATLAB程序 中外女子 游泳成绩 

分 类 号：G80-32[文化科学—运动人体科学]