Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods  

作　　者：YAO FengMei QIN PengCheng ZHANG JiaHua LIN ErDa BOKEN Vijendra 

机构地区：[1]College of Earth Science, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China [2]Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China [3]Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China [4]School of Geoscience, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, China [5]Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China [6]Department of Geography and Earth Science, University of Nebraska at Kearney, Kearney, NE 68849, USA

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2011年第8期729-737,共9页

基　　金：supported by the Global Change Global Research Key Project of the National Science Plan (2010CB951302);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40771147);the Fund of the Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment and Climate Change of the Ministry of Agriculture (2010);CAMS Basic Research Fund (2010Y004)

摘　　要：Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture.Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties,impeding effective decision-making to climate change.On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment at different levels,this article systematically summarizes the sources and propagation of uncertainty in the assessment of the effect of climate change on agriculture in terms of the climate projection,the assessment process,and the crop models linking to climate models.Meanwhile,techniques and methods focusing on different levels and sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation are introduced,and shortcomings and insufficiencies in uncertainty processing are pointed out.Finally,in terms of how to accurately assess the effect of climate change on agriculture,improvements to further decrease potential uncertainty are suggested.Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture. Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties, impeding effective decision-making to climate change. On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment at different levels, this article systematically summarizes the sources and propagation of uncertainty in the assessment of the effect of climate change on agriculture in terms of the climate projection, the assessment process, and the crop models linking to climate models. Meanwhile, techniques and methods focusing on different levels and sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation are introduced, and shortcomings and insufficiencies in uncertainty processing are pointed out. Finally, in terms of how to accurately assess the effect of climate change on agriculture, improvements to further decrease potential uncertainty are suggested.

关 键 词：不确定性模型 影响评估 气候变化 农业影响 模型模拟 不确定性传播 气候预测 气候模型 

分 类 号：P9[天文地球—自然地理学] TV542[水利工程—水利水电工程]