漳浦县旧镇梅宅村海水入侵的动力系统模型研究  

Study on Dynamic Model to Simulate Seawater Intrusion Into Meizhai at Jiuzhen of Zhangpu

作　　者：蔡建堤[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省水产研究所,福建厦门361012

出　　处：《海岸工程》2011年第1期41-50,共10页Coastal Engineering

基　　金：闽海渔(2007-398号)

摘　　要：用简化动力系统模型模拟海水入侵,评估未来漳浦县旧镇梅宅村海水入侵的发展趋势,提出减缓和预防海水入侵的措施,并预测监测点海水入侵的矿化度。结果表明:要减缓海水入侵的速度需要8 a时间,矿化度变为6.243 0 g/L,这表明如果发生海水入侵,恢复的时间比较漫长。但通过增加淡水水源,并淡水水头水位保持在6.2个单位(1单位=5 m)时,只需要1 a多的时间恢复为淡水,说明通过增加淡水水源的手段可以加快抵制海水入侵。保持淡水源水位和海水源水位的比例大约1:1,海水入侵不会继续加剧,这为我们科学合理的开采地下水提供依据。通过预测监测点2010年4月和8月的矿化度,发现动态预警方式比静态预警方式预测精度高,误差在2%以内,表明动态的预警方式能有效地预警海水入侵。A simplified dynamic model is used to simulate seawater intrusion into Meizhai at Jiuzhen of Zhangpu and to expound seawater intrusion tendency there. Then the measures are proposed to slow down the seawater intrusion rate and to prevent from the intrusion. Also the seawater mineralization degree is predicted for a monitoring station. As it is shown in the modeling results, it takes 8 years to slow down the intrusion rate and for the mineralization degree to becomes 6. 2430 g/L. These results means that it takes a long time to recover the water quality once the seawater has been intruded. If fresh water from a source with its flow head as much as 6.2 units has been addled to the intruded area, it takes about 1 year for the intruded seawater to be refreshed. Therefore a fresh water source is helpful to quickly prevent from seawater intrusion. If the 1 ： 1 proportion of the fresh water level to the seawater level is maintained, the seawater in- trusion will not become worse. This study might provide scientific basis for reasonable exploitation of underground water. In addition, it is learnt from the prediction results for the mineralization degree at the monitoring station in the period form April to Au gust 2010 that the dynamic prediction method can predict the seawater intrusion more precisely than the static prediction method, and it is more effective to issue the seawater intrusion warning.

关 键 词：动力系统模型 海水入侵 预警 

分 类 号：P736.5[天文地球—海洋地质]