建筑业与建材业发展的互动机理及效应仿真研究  

Simulation of the Mechanism between Construction Industry and Building Materials Industry and Its Influence Degree

作　　者：祁神军[1,2] 张云波[1] 丁烈云[2] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,福建厦门361021 [2]华中科技大学土木工程与力学学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2011年第1期38-42,共5页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

基　　金：华侨大学高层次人才引进基金(09BS623);国侨办基金(06Q0052)

摘　　要：采用系统动力学原理和方法,从投入与产出角度提出了建筑业与建材业发展的动力机制和动力模型。根据我国1992年至2005年建筑业、建材业及宏观经济发展的数据,模拟和预测了我国建筑业、建材业发展现状及发展趋势;改变建筑业投资,模拟并预测其对建筑业、建材业的影响效应。设定金融危机对建筑业和建材业的影响参数,模拟并预测其对建筑业和建材业的影响程度;在此基础上,设定建筑业增加3万多亿投资的参数,模拟金融危机情形下增加建筑业投资对建筑业和建材业的拉动效应。研究结果表明,建筑业与建材业发展互动影响效应明显;在金融危机的情形下,对建筑业增加投资,能有效促进建筑业及建材业等关联产业的持续增长,促进GDP的持续上涨。On the basal idea of Input-Output mode,the interior mechanism and dynamical model between construction industry and building materials industry was proposed with System Dynamics.Collecting and analyzing the history data of construction industry,building materials industry and macro-economy,the current situation and tendency of construction industry and building materials industry were monitored with the dynamical model.Computing the parameters of the dynamical model on the situation of Financial Crisis 2008,the influence degree of construction industry and building materials industry was analyzed.The pulling effect of construction industry and building materials industry by the countermeasure of increasing 3 trillion of investment plans was also investigated.The research results indicate that the interior mechanism between construction industry and building materials industry is very obvious,and increasing investment plans is an effective method to expand domestic demand to promote economic growth of construction industry,building materials industry,even other related industries.

关 键 词：建筑业 建材业 系统动力学 互动机理 互动效应 

分 类 号：F426.9[经济管理—产业经济]