新疆与其边境地区、内蒙古地区及华东、华南与台湾部分地区未来强震预测  

A forward prediction of strong earthquakes in the Xinjiang and its border regions,the Inner Mongolia region,and certain regions of east China,south China and Taiwan

作　　者：秦四清[1] 薛雷[1] 黄鑫[1] 王媛媛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所工程地质力学重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2011年第1期21-31,共11页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-113;KZCX2-YW-Q03-02113);国家自然科学基金委重点项目(41030750)联合资助

摘　　要：运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与有关预测方法 ,对新疆与其边境地区、内蒙古地区及华东、华南与台湾部分地区各地震区未来的地震趋势进行了分析,给出了未来有大地震发生的地震区地震震级、地点、临界应变(对应发震时间)、震源深度在内的四要素预测结果 .得出的结论可供有关部门参考,以制定相应的防震减灾措施.The earthquake trend in the Xinjiang of China and its border regions, the Inner Mongolia region, and certain regions of east China, south China and Taiwan is analyzed in detail using the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and the concerned prediction method. For the seismic zone where a large earthquake will occur, the prediction results including the magnitude, place, critical strain （corresponding to the occurrence time of earthquake）, and the hypocentral depth of an oncoming earthquake are provided. It is suggested that the department concerned should consider the conclusions obtained in this paper for taking precautions against earthquakes.

关 键 词：地震区 锁固段 预测方法 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]