基于多层次模糊综合评价法的我国智能电网风险评价  

The Risk Assessment of China′s Smart Grid Based on Multi-Level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

作　　者：曾鸣[1] 陈英杰[1] 胡献忠[1] 董达鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源与电力经济研究咨询中心,北京102206

出　　处：《华东电力》2011年第4期535-539,共5页East China Electric Power

摘　　要：介绍了智能电网风险评估的综合指标体系,该体系包括金融风险、技术风险、安全风险、管理风险以及外部风险等5个方面的一级指标以及相对应的二级指标,重点分析了智能电网面临的技术风险和安全风险。将层次分析法与模糊评价法相结合,获得各层因素的权重和综合风险评价矩阵,并结合实例分析,对目前我国智能电网的风险进行了分析。This paper proposes a comprehensive risk assessment index system for China＇s smart grid,including five first-level indicators such as financial risk,technical risk,security risk,management risk and external risk.Every indicator includes specific subfactors.The technical risks and security risks for smart grid are emphatically analyzed.The paper integrates AHP with Fuzzy evaluation method,through the weight of each layer and the risk assessment matrix determined.Practical case study shows that the current smart grid industry in China has a higher level risk.

关 键 词：智能电网 风险评价 层次分析 模糊综合评价法 

分 类 号：TM9[电气工程—电力电子与电力传动] F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]