含多个风电场的穿透功率极限概率值计算及置信区间估计  

PROBABILISTIC CALCULATION AND CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATION OF SEVERAL WIND FARM PENETRATION LIMIT

作　　者：王茜[1] 张粒子[1] 谢国辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2011年第4期553-559,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAA13B11)

摘　　要：考虑了不同地域的风速变化和负荷波动,并计及发电机组和输电线路随机故障的不同场景,采用蒙特卡罗方法进行状态抽样;构建含多个风电场的风电机组容量优化模型进行优化分析;为贴近系统未来实际运行情况,引入基于一定置信概率下风电场最大机组容量的区间值估计;IEEE30节点算例分析表明:在不同地点同时接入风电机组的效益将优于在同一地点集中接入的情况,风电场穿透功率极限区间估计更加易于适应系统未来运行状态的不确定性,从而验证了该文提出的模型和方法的可行性和正确性。The wind speed and load fluctuations in different regions, the operation condition of generating units and transmission lines were simulated through Monte-Carlo mode. The optimal model of wind turbine capacity with several wind farms was presented. The confidence interval estimation of maximum capacity of wind turbine based on a certain confidence probability would conform to the actual situation of power system. The study results IEEE-30 bus test system show that the benefits of wind turbine integrated in different locations are better than in the same location, and the confidence interval estimation of maximum capacity of wind turbine is more conducive to adapt to the uncertainty of power system in the future, which can verify feasibility and correctness of the proposed model and method.

关 键 词：蒙特卡罗 穿透功率极限 概率值 置信区间 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]