煤炭产量与经济增长——基于山西面板数据协整模型的实证分析  

Coal Production and Economic Growth——The Empirical Analysis Based on Cointegration Panel Data Model in Shanxi

作　　者：陈新国[1] 肖新新[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学经济管理学院,太原030024

出　　处：《科技和产业》2011年第4期1-5,共5页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(10BJL049)

摘　　要：运用协整理论的方法,通过对山西1989-2008年间的煤炭产量与山西国内生产总值之间的关系进行研究,得出如下结论:山西煤炭产量与山西GDP之间存在协整关系;误差修正模型表明二者之间存在长期均衡关系,且误差修正项ECMt-1的系数表明5.15%左右的偏离均衡部分会在一年内得以调整,调整的幅度相对较小;同时,二者具有双向的格兰杰因果关系。本文根据以上结论提出了几条建议,这对经济发展的相关政策制定有一定的理论指导意义。This paper used co-integration to study the relationship between coal production and Shanxi＇s GDP from 1989 to 2008 and drew the following conclusions： there was co-integration between Shanxi＇s coal production and Shanxi＇s GDP;error correction model indicated that long-term equilibrium relationship between the two;and the coefficients of error correction term ECMt-1 showed that about 5.15% deviation from the equilibrium part could be adjusted within a year,and the adjustment was relatively small;at the same time,they both had two-way Granger causality.Based on these conclusions this paper made several recommendations which had some theoretical significance for formulating economic development policy.

关 键 词：煤炭产量 经济增长 协整 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济]